Automation equipment industry research report

1. Phenomenon: the general automation industry shows similar cyclical characteristics, and the inflection point is upward from 2020

(1) The general automation industry represented by robots, lasers, injection molding machines and machine tools shows similar cyclical characteristic

Industrial robots, laser, injection molding machines, machine tools and other general automation equipment, because their prosperity is related to manufacturing investment, are mainly affected by the fluctuations of automobile manufacturing investment, 3C manufacturing investment and other general manufacturing investment in history, and their prosperity trend shows the consistency in the direction (range is different).

Industrial robot：According to the historical data of industrial robot sales from 2001 to 2019 published by IFR, the growth rate of global industrial robot sales and China's industrial robot sales has a relatively similar trend, showing a periodicity of about 3-4 years. In the past 19 years, there were five mini-cycles of 3-4 years: 2002-2005, 2005-2009, 2009-2012, 2012-2015, and 2015-2019, consisting of 1-2 years of upward growth and 1-2 years of downward growth, respectively.

The laser：We take the sales scale of China's laser equipment in the development report of China's laser industry published by Wuhan Literature Center as an indicator. It can be seen that the laser equipment industry also reflects the periodicity of about 3 years. In the past 9 years, there have been two cycles from 2013 to 2016 and from 2016 to 2019. The data of these two rounds are relatively short. According to the data of these two rounds, the change trend in recent 3 years is consistent with that of the robot, and the last round is one year behind that of the robot.

Injection molding machine：Due to the lack of industrial statistical data in the injection molding machine industry, we take the revenue data of the industry leader Skycorp International as a representative to illustrate the changing trend of the industry. Seen from the changing trend of revenue growth of Haitian International in the past 17 years, it also reflects the cyclical characteristics of about 3 years. The period from the low growth rate to the low of the next cycle is as follows: From 2005 to 2008, from 2008 to 2012, from 2012 to 2015, and from 2015 to 2019, the overall trend of change was consistent with that of robots.

Machine tool：Since China's machine tool industry is large but not strong, and the import of middle and high-end machine tools is the main part, compared with the domestic output data, the inlet data can better reflect the demand change trend under the industrial upgrading, so we choose the machine tool import data as the indicator. From the data of machine tool import in the past 26 years, the machine tool industry has the characteristics of large periodicity for about 10 years (see the report "Deep Research Report of Machine Tool Industry (I) : Industrial Development" for details). "Time, geographical location, people", domestic high-end CNC machine tools set sail "), but also inlaid 3-4 years of small cycle, from the low growth rate to the next cycle of low period are respectively: During 1998-2001, 2001-2005, 2005-2009, 2009-2013, 2013-2016 and 2016-2019, although some years have led or lagged behind, the overall trend is consistent with that of robots, lasers and injection molding machines.

conclusion：The four industries of robot, laser, injection molding machine and machine tool show similar periodic changes of about 3-4 years, mainly because these four industries are all general equipment and their demands are related to downstream manufacturing investment, especially the manufacturing investment with a high proportion of output value such as automobile and 3C has a great impact on them. In 2019, the growth rate was low. Assuming the cyclical characteristics continue, the growth rate is expected to pick up in 2020-2021. In addition, due to the different development stages of these four industries, the downstream manufacturing penetration rate is different, and the growth rate is different. In order of CAGR of the past 10 years (2009-2019), robot (38.2%) > laser (21.1%) > plastic machinery 1 (10.03%) > machine tool (-3.18%), Robot and light industry growth characteristics are more significant.

(2) In the post-epidemic era, the general automation industry continues to prosper

The general automation boom trend is upward in the post-epidemic era。

The industry's growth rate bottomed out in 2019 and began to stabilize and pick up in 2020. At the beginning of the year, the epidemic affected all industries. With the promotion of the resumption of work and production, the general automation industry has a significant recovery trend and its growth rate continues to rise. Influences of the epidemic on the general automation industry :(1) the epidemic caused global economic recession, and the liquidity of various countries was loose; (2) China was the fastest to resume work and production, and as the core supply end of the global manufacturing industry, its share increased; (3) after the epidemic, enterprises were more willing to improve automation, and the proportion of automation in new capital expenditure increased.

Industrial robot：The monthly output growth rate of industrial robots became positive in October 2019, ending the decline since the second half of 2018. In early 2020, it declined due to the impact of the epidemic, and picked up after the epidemic. In 2020, the cumulative production of industrial machines reached 237,068 sets, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1%. In December, the single month production of industrial robots reached 29,706 sets, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%, a record high.

Machine tool：In the past 10 years, the production and sales volume of the machine tool industry have declined as a whole. According to the monthly production data of metal cutting machine tools, the monthly growth rate has turned positive in April after the epidemic in 2020, and the cumulative growth rate has also turned positive in October. In 2020, the accumulative output of metal-cutting machine tools reached 450,000 units, up 5.9% year on year. From the import data of machine tools, from November to December in 2020, the imported machine tools reached 28,393 and 10,913 respectively, with a large improvement. The total number of imported machine beds in the whole year was 109,483, with a year-on-year growth of 18.8%.

Laser Industrial Chain：High-frequency data of the laser industry chain we observe the revenue of the global laser leader IPG. Since 2020, IPG's revenue has gradually reversed the downward trend that started in 2018. In particular, IPG's 2020Q3 sales revenue in China increased by 22% year on year.

Injection molding machine：We observe the shipment data of Brandt manipulator (supporting injection molding machine), the growth rate has maintained a high level since June 2020, and the industry leader Haitian International and Yizhmi have sufficient orders in hand.